Hot Takes

Spain created enough chances to beat Cabo Verde three times over and left Atlanta with nothing. The 2.29 expected goals from 27 shots confirm the system is functioning until the ball reaches the final third, and then it stops working. Saudi Arabia’s disciplined 1-1 draw with Uruguay showed they defended with exactly the same compact shape that Cabo Verde used to frustrate Spain on matchday one. De la Fuente needs a conversion rate in Atlanta that his side hasn’t yet produced at this tournament.

Sweden’s Gyokeres and Isak are the story every preview has led with before Houston, but after the Netherlands dropped two points against Japan by retreating from a 2-1 lead, the more pressing question is about Koeman’s tactical instinct rather than Sweden’s firepower. A side that held 69 percent of the ball in the first 45 minutes against Japan finished controlling only 48 percent of the second half. Sweden’s vertical pace will find the same space if Koeman repeats that retreat.

Germany’s 7-1 win over Curaçao flattered a defence that hasn’t actually been tested yet. Twenty-six shots and 57 percent possession against a World Cup debutant tell you almost nothing about how that backline copes with real pace. The same gap behind Kimmich’s advancing right-back position that Mexico and Algeria once exploited at major tournaments is still there, and the Ivory Coast has the runners to find it. Whether Nagelsmann tightens that channel or trusts his midfield to cover it could decide Group E before the final group game.