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By winning at San Siro, and nothing less will do. A victory would pull Italy level with the leaders on 10 points and, because the first meeting ended 1-1, hand them the head-to-head edge if both finish equal. A draw would leave a three-point gap. They would then need to match France on the final matchday. To get there, they must defend with more control than they showed in Paris and turn possession into clearer chances than two shots on target allowed.
France lead on 10 points after four games, with three wins and a draw, having scored seven goals and let in two. Italy follow on 7, a tally built from eight goals scored and five conceded, ahead of Belgium on 6 and a pointless Türkiye. Their defence is the main reason they are clear.
Only two sides advance to the quarter-finals in March 2027, so Belgium are one point behind Italy and very much alive. Italy’s campaign began with a 2-0 home loss to Belgium, followed by victories of 4-1 and 3-1 over Türkiye, one before and one after the trip to Paris.
| Team | Played | Points | Goal Difference | Remaining Fixtures |
| France | 4 | 10 | +5 | Italy (away), Türkiye (home) |
| Italy | 4 | 7 | +3 | France (home), Belgium (away) |
| Belgium | 4 | 6 | +1 | Türkiye (away), Italy (home) |
| Türkiye | 4 | 0 | -9 | Belgium (home), France (away) |
Level teams are separated first by points from the games between them, then on the goal margin and goals scored across those fixtures. Because the first meeting ended 1-1, a home win in Milan would put Italy ahead of France on that measure should both end level. A French win would carry them to 13, out of reach of Italy, who can get no higher than 10, and of Belgium, capped at 12, which would settle top spot.
A draw is more awkward for Italy. It would leave France with 11 and Italy with 8, so the hosts would need Türkiye to beat France on matchday six, while Italy themselves won in Belgium.
On 2 October in Paris, at the Stade de France, the hosts held 65% of the ball, took 18 shots to Italy’s 14 and put 8 on target against 2. Seven saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma kept Italy alive until Alessandro Bastoni’s equaliser in the 68th minute, which followed a free-kick from Michael Olise. Those numbers describe a team that spent most of the night defending.
Bastoni scored after pressing high and punishing a careless pass by Lucas Da Cunha, and afterwards produced a decisive tackle to stop Olise while French penalty appeals were waved away. Italy still have to defend with more control, lean less on one goalkeeper and create better chances. Their 2024/25 meetings were shared, with the visitors winning 3-1 each time.
| Date | Competition | Home | Away | Score |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Nations League | France | Italy | 1-1 |
| 17 Nov 2024 | Nations League | Italy | France | 1-3 |
| 6 Sep 2024 | Nations League | France | Italy | 1-3 |
Zinedine Zidane’s unbeaten side opened with a 1-0 win at Türkiye, then took a 1-0 win at Belgium and a 4-1 win over the same opponents before the draw with Italy. Kylian Mbappé supplied the single goal of that opener, while Paris also saw Dayot Upamecano dismissed late, in the 85th minute.
Only two goals have beaten their defence, and a Milan draw would keep them three clear on 11. Their next game after San Siro is a home fixture with Türkiye on 15 November, with Italy off to Belgium.
Should Italy win at San Siro, both sides would be level on 10 points heading into 15 November. That day Italy travel to Belgium, the side that inflicted the opening-day 2-0 defeat in Rome, while France welcome Türkiye.
Two wins on the last matchday would leave both on 13, and Italy would take the group through their head-to-head record. Any stumble by Italy gives France first place, and that is the whole story of the Italy vs France Nations League 2026 Group A1 race. Short of a win in Milan, Italy are left chasing, although a runner-up place still brings a last-eight meeting with a section winner.
Can Italy beat France at San Siro, or will the leaders stay on top? Tell us in the comments.
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Can Italy still win the group?
Yes, but they need a win on 12 November. Victory at San Siro would level France at 10 points and give Italy the head-to-head edge after the 1-1 first meeting.
Which teams advance from League A groups?
The top two in each group go through. Winners and runners-up go into the March 2027 quarter-finals, played over two legs, so a second-place finish still keeps the dream alive for contenders.
Where will Italy and France play on 12 November?
They meet at San Siro in Milan. Kick-off is 20:45 CET on Thursday 12 November, with Italy as the home side and France arriving three points clear.
Who scored in the first France and Italy game?
Michael Olise scored for France and Alessandro Bastoni for Italy. Olise’s free-kick opened the scoring, and Bastoni equalised in the 68th minute, leaving it 1-1 at the final whistle.
Who are the other teams in Italy’s group?
France, Belgium and Türkiye. Belgium sit on 6 points and Türkiye on none, while Italy have 7 and France lead the table with 10, three points clear.
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