Opinions, analysis and commentary
Only one of them is, and it isn’t Villa. Newcastle sit ninth with eight points while the numbers behind them rank twentieth for expected points, an eleven-place gap that is the league’s widest. Neither table position is secure. Villa are sixteenth with four points, and their scoring sits slightly below their chance quality rather than above it. Five games is a thin sample, and the Matchday 7 meeting at St James’ Park on 17 October may settle which story holds.
Opta’s expected points model replays each fixture 10,000 times, weighting every shot by its value, then turns win, draw and defeat shares into a points estimate. Its own warning applies here: the sample of five matches is small, and xG overlooks the scoreline and any threatening spell ending without a shot. Newcastle spent 45.5% of their minutes in front, behind only Manchester City’s 52.5%, and sides in front tend to create less.
Villa’s 33 goals after 20 league games beat their 24.0 xG by nine, the biggest surplus anywhere, yet they ended the season fourth with 65 points, back in the Champions League. Newcastle went the other way, ending twelfth on 49 points against an expected 55. Luck can last a full season, or it can reverse, so the label overperforming needs care.
Brighton lead the chance-creation chart with 11.49 xG, ahead of Manchester City on 10.50, while Arsenal’s 4.04 xGA is the stingiest defensive figure. Newcastle’s 5.29 xG ranks sixteenth, and Villa’s 4.56 ranks last of the twenty clubs.
The difference column is where the pair separate from the pack. Villa’s xG difference of -4.35 is the league’s worst and Newcastle’s -3.76 is second-worst, yet Newcastle hold eight points to Villa’s four. Opta’s expected points table puts Newcastle twentieth, an eleven-place drop from their real ninth.
| Team | xG | xGA | Points | xPTS |
| Manchester City | 10.50 | 6.84 | 15 | 9.18 |
| Arsenal | 8.48 | 4.04 | 12 | 9.00 |
| Manchester United | 9.89 | 6.80 | 5 | 8.40 |
| Brighton | 11.49 | 6.55 | 10 | 7.00 |
| Sunderland | 9.77 | 9.00 | 4 | 6.00 |
| Hull City | 5.25 | 7.55 | 8 | 5.18 |
| Newcastle | 5.29 | 9.05 | 8 | 4.01 |
| Aston Villa | 4.56 | 8.91 | 4 | 4.00 |
| Tottenham | 5.00 | 6.85 | 2 | 4.00 |
| Coventry City | 4.88 | 13.88 | 3 | 3.00 |
Newcastle’s gap is built on finishing. Their 9 goals against 5.29 xG is a surplus of 3.7 that only Brighton, at 4.52, exceeds, and they lost the chance battle in all five matches. Two goals at Tottenham came from 0.72 xG, and two against Bournemouth from 0.71.
Their defence is not the lucky part, because 9 goals conceded sits almost exactly on the 9.05 xGA. Lukas Hornicek arrived from Braga on 3 August and has kept one clean sheet. The attack is converting roughly one shot in five at about 0.12 xG apiece, a pace that rarely holds.
Villa fit no overperformance story. They sit last for xG and for volume too, with 48 shots, 12 on target and 81 touches in the rival penalty area, so four goals from 4.56 xG is a small shortfall. Their only win came 3-2 at bottom-placed Tottenham, where Opta praised outstanding finishing from Nicolas Jackson and Emi Buendia against hosts as accommodating as any in recent seasons.
The defensive numbers are weak too, with the fifth-worst xGA at around 8.91 while 9 goals went in. Heavy summer turnover explains some of it, and Joao Gomes saw red in the opening-day match with Brighton, handing the opponents a man advantage for over 87 minutes.
Matchday 6 has not been played. Villa host Brentford on Saturday 10 October, while Newcastle travel to Coventry, who sit nineteenth for xG. Opta’s fixture-difficulty ranking calls Newcastle’s next five the second-easiest and Villa’s the fourth-hardest.
The sides meet on Matchday 7 on 17 October, with Champions League home ties for Villa on 14 and 21 October either side of it. Opta sees Newcastle’s gentler schedule as an opening for results to catch up with the underlying numbers, so the Premier League 2026 Newcastle Aston Villa xG picture needs a recheck after this weekend.
| Team | Next five opponents |
| Newcastle | Coventry, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham |
| Villa | Brentford, Newcastle, Manchester City, Fulham, Manchester United |
Are Newcastle riding a hot streak that will cool, or is their finishing real? Tell us what you expect in the comments.
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What does an xG table actually measure?
An xG table orders teams by how good their chances were, created and allowed, not by goals. Squawka converts each game into a rounded score and hands out points, while Opta runs 10,000 simulations per match.
Why do Aston Villa sit lowest on expected goals?
Villa trail the league for xG at 4.56, and for shots, shots on target, and box touches. Their xG difference of -4.35 is the worst around, with a squad overhaul and an early red card blamed.
Are Newcastle really overachieving this season?
Yes, on both points and finishing. They are ninth with eight points against about 4.0 expected, and they have bagged nine goals off 5.29 xG without winning a single chance battle.
How is expected goals defined in football?
Expected goals gives every shot a value between 0 and 1, based on how frequently comparable efforts end in goals. Location, angle, distance, and defensive pressure all feed the number, and the model ignores game state.
Which club has created the best chances so far?
Brighton lead with 11.49 xG, ahead of Manchester City on 10.50 and Brentford on 9.90. Arsenal own the best balance, with an xG difference of +4.44 and the lowest xGA at 4.04.
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