France keeps winning because they have more ways to score late in tight games and Belgium has too few ways to control a match. Six straight defeats, the latest a narrow 1-0 loss in Brussels on 28 September, show a pattern that has survived tournaments, venues and coaching changes alike. Belgium head to the Stade de France in Saint-Denis on 5 October missing Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne, two midfielders serving suspensions, which makes the run more likely to continue than to end.

A Late Olise Solo Settled Brussels

Zinedine Zidane reshuffled his side with nine changes following the victory against Türkiye, and had the injured Kylian Mbappé unavailable, yet France still left with the points. For most of the night a goalless draw looked likely. The closest Belgium came was a Lukebakio chance, yet the hosts never converted their pressure into a goal.

Then Michael Olise, a substitute from the 77th minute, gathered possession deep in his own half. He drove through the Belgian defence and, at the 88-minute mark, placed the finish in the bottom-left corner. The goal came from open play, not a set piece.

Three Habits Behind the French Run

Olise, Dembélé, Kolo Muani, Hernández and Umtiti have each delivered decisive goals in this fixture, and the winners at Euro 2024 and in Brussels last week both came off the bench. Set pieces help too: Umtiti headed in from a corner in 2018, France opened the scoring in Brussels in October 2024 from the penalty spot, and Olise also found the net from a free-kick during Friday’s draw against Italy.

Belgium’s weakness is control. In the 2021 semi-final, they let slip a two-goal interval lead, and after the Türkiye game, coach Mark van Bommel said his side must manage matches better. That admission matters because France need only one clear chance to turn a tight game, as Olise proved.

France vs Belgium head-to-head Nations League

Brussels left the all-time record level, 30 wins each across 79 games, plus 19 draws between them. Their last success was a friendly in June 2015 that finished 4-3, and the last competitive win dates to 1981. France holds a 10-3 goal advantage over those last six games.

The table shows how narrow most of those wins were: five of the six ended by a single goal, and Kolo Muani scored in three consecutive meetings from the Euro 2024 last 16 to October 2024.

A Midfield Missing Its Creator

De Bruyne netted two of Belgium’s three against Türkiye, Lukaku adding the other, but yellow cards in successive matches now keep him and Tielemans out of the return. That strips Belgium of their main creator and one of their steadier passers at once.

Belgium have scored five and conceded one in Group A1, with two clean sheets, and Mika Godts and Lukebakio were on target when Belgium won 2-0 away to Italy. France show a similar record of three scored, one conceded and two clean sheets, but they also lack Mbappé through a knee injury and Dayot Upamecano after his red card against Italy.

Also read:  What Must Klopp Change in the Greece vs Germany Nations League 2026 Rematch to Avoid a Second Loss?

Control Matters More Than Chances

Belgium cannot afford to trade chances, because that is the game France are best equipped to win. Türkiye outshot them 23 to 17 even in a 3-0 defeat, which hints at space left behind the front line. Roméo Lavia and Hans Vanaken are the likeliest answers to the midfield hole.

Three goals in three games is all France have managed this campaign, so one early Belgian strike would test their nerve, but nothing in the France vs Belgium head-to-head Nations League record suggests they will crack. France remain the likelier winners.

Can Belgium finally end the run without De Bruyne, or is a seventh straight defeat on the way? Tell us your score prediction in the comments.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Who has won more matches between France and Belgium?

Neither side leads, as both have 30 wins from 79 meetings. There have been 19 draws, though France have won each of the last six meetings by an aggregate of 10-3.

When did Belgium last beat France?

The last Belgian victory over the French came in a June 2015 friendly, 4-3. Their last victory in a competitive match came in a 1981 World Cup qualifier, over four decades ago.

What time is France vs Belgium on 5 October?

The match starts at 8:45 pm local time at the Stade de France. That is 7:45 pm in the UK and 18:45 GMT, while Bangladesh sees it at 12:45 am, already 6 October.

Who scored the winning goal in the Brussels meeting?

Michael Olise decided the match with a solo finish in Brussels. He came on in the 77th minute and scored in the 88th, giving France a 1-0 win on 28 September.

Is Kylian Mbappé playing against Belgium?

No, a left knee problem rules Mbappé out. He picked it up while scoring against Türkiye on 25 September, and France also lost Dayot Upamecano, who was sent off against Italy.