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A cut of about 40 points would put Manchester City in relegation danger, and 50 would all but finish the job. An independent commission has convicted the club on 114 of the 115 charges, yet the punishment is still undecided. City deny wrongdoing and have appealed, so every figure below is a projection, not a prediction. Last season’s 78 points give a baseline against which each possible cut can be tested, and the arithmetic is less dramatic than the reaction implied, since City began high up the table.
The independent commission ruled on 29 September 2026 that City broke the rules on 114 counts. That covered every one of the 80 financial counts, plus 34 of the 35 tied to obstructing the investigation. The conduct stretches across the 2009-10 to 2017-18 seasons, and chief executive Richard Masters described the outcome as the biggest disciplinary ruling the league has ever handed down.
City rejected the finding and filed an appeal on 1 October, which freezes the story at an odd point. A club has been judged, but nobody knows the penalty. Rule W64 gives the commission three levers: a fine, a points cut or expulsion, and that gap between guilt and sentence is where all the speculation lives.
Estimates differ wildly. Finance analyst Kieran Maguire has floated a range of 40 to 60 points; Keith Wyness, who once ran Everton, mentioned as many as 50, while Bryan King, a former scout, pushed for only 20. A gap that wide between the lowest and highest guess shows how little anyone has to anchor to.
History is no help either. Everton lost 10 points in 2023, the heaviest penalty the league has issued, and Portsmouth dropped nine in 2010 after entering administration. Anything near the bottom of the expert range would be double any earlier sanction, so the commission would be writing new law.
Start from the 78 points City collected last season. Across the past ten campaigns, the side finishing 17th averaged 37 points, and the one in 18th averaged 32. Last term Tottenham survived with 41 and West Ham were relegated with 39, so 37 is a fair working line for safety.
| Deduction | City Points | Safety Line | Outcome |
| 10 points | 68 | 37 | Safe |
| 20 points | 58 | 37 | Safe |
| 30 points | 48 | 37 | Safe |
| 40 points | 38 | 37 | Danger zone |
| 50 points | 28 | 37 | Likely relegated |
| 60 points | 18 | 37 | Relegated |
Read the table plainly. Up to 30 points off leaves City comfortably clear on 48. At 40 they land on 38, a total that would have sat below West Ham’s 39 last season. City’s recent totals of 93, 89 and 91, then 71 and 78, tower over the 31.8 that the team finishing 18th averaged in those years, so only a huge cut closes that distance.
The commission can recommend throwing City out, but that needs a special resolution carrying 15 of the 20 clubs. Senior executives at two rival clubs have voiced doubt that 15 sides would ever back it, describing the move as a commercial disaster the league would inflict on itself.
There is also a structural problem. The league has no power to place City in the EFL, which answers to a different organisation, so expulsion would leave them without a clear home. A heavy points deduction is the cleaner route to the same end, which is why the table above matters more than any vote.
Three fresh appeal judges will sit for a maximum of five days, and the filing must be heard within 12 weeks. Counting from 1 October, the cutoff is 24 December 2026. Judgment is due within a further 30 days, meaning 23 January 2027 at the latest, while any sanction gets its own separate hearing.
No one has said whether a penalty may be applied while the appeal is still running. Should it arrive early, City might go down and then be vindicated, which makes the timing of any Man City points deduction in Premier League 2026 as important as its size. Fans should treat the next three months as a race between two clocks, one legal and one sporting.
Which deduction do you expect the commission to choose, and would relegation feel fair to you? Tell us in the comments.
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Is Manchester City heading for relegation?
Nothing is settled, since the sanction is unknown and an appeal is pending. The drop becomes likely only once a cut nears 40 points, leaving City around 38 against a usual safety mark of 37.
How big could City’s punishment be?
Guesses range from 20 to 60 points. Everton’s 2023 deduction of 10 points is the heaviest the league has applied, so even the lowest estimate would be double that earlier record.
Could City be kicked out of the league?
Technically yes, though 15 of the 20 member clubs would have to approve it. The league also has no power to place them in the EFL, which sits outside its control, so expulsion would be messy.
When is the City appeal verdict due?
The hearing has to end by 24 December 2026. Judges then have 30 days to rule, which puts the final verdict no later than 23 January 2027, assuming the timetable holds.
Might City be stripped of past trophies?
Rule W64 permits other orders, so it cannot be ruled out in theory. Coverage so far points to punishments aimed at the current era and what comes next, so stripped trophies look unlikely.
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