Hot Takes

Austria have no business being favourites at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, and nobody in Ralf Rangnick’s camp is pretending otherwise. Spain arrive unbeaten and unscored-upon, the deepest midfield left in the tournament, topping their group with room to spare. What actually gives Austria a route into this game is one player operating in a role that doesn’t show up on a scoresheet: Konrad Laimer, the Bayern Munich right-back who spends as much time in central midfield as he does on the touchline.

The USA enter this Round of 32 tie as clear favourites, but their group stage ended with a specific warning: a 3-2 loss to Turkey built almost entirely on wide combinations a rotated backline couldn’t handle. Bosnia’s attack is built for exactly that gap, with Alajbegovic and Demirovic both threatening from the flanks and through the middle. The hosts topped Group D with wins over Paraguay and Australia, while Bosnia scraped through as a third-place finisher after beating Qatar. The seeding favours America. The matchup of strengths and weaknesses does not.

Senegal scored more goals in the group stage than Belgium did, eight to six, and that gap matters more than the seeding suggests. Belgium needed a stoppage-time goal just to beat New Zealand and were outshot in the first half of that same match. Senegal’s run was rockier on paper, losing to France and Norway before thrashing Iraq 5-0, but the firepower behind that win, led by Ismaila Sarr, points to a side capable of testing a shakier Belgian defence than the bracket suggests.

France arrive at MetLife Stadium having swept Group I without dropping a point, their first clean group stage at a major tournament since 1998. Sweden scraped through as one of the best third-placed teams after a group stage that swung between impressive and brittle. The gap in class is real, but Sweden’s only route to an upset is specific and narrow: their front two need to be running at stretched defenders from the first whistle, not chasing a game France are already controlling.

Ivory Coast and Norway both finished runners-up in their groups, and on paper Norway are the stronger side. Erling Haaland scored four goals in two appearances before being rested, and the individual quality through midfield is hard to match. But Ivory Coast carry one specific habit that head-to-head comparisons don’t capture: they scored first in every group game they played. That simple fact has repeatedly made opponents chase the result, and it may be the most relevant number heading into AT&T Stadium.

Japan’s only win over Brazil in 14 attempts came at 2-0 down, in Tokyo, with 38 minutes remaining. It happened through a pressing trigger, a quick combination, and three finishes that rewrote the history books entirely. Houston on June 29 is not Tokyo, and Ancelotti’s Brazil is not a side that collapses without a very specific reason. But Japan’s blueprint hasn’t changed since that night, Moriyasu has made no attempt to hide it, and the players who executed it in October are still in this squad.

Morocco doesn’t need to outplay the Netherlands to beat them. Against Brazil, the highest-ranked side in their group, they didn’t even try to. They sat compact, pressed their triggers at the right moments, and turned one lapse in Brazil’s positional structure into a goal inside 21 minutes. The Netherlands offers the same invitation on June 30: both full-backs forward, space behind on the turnover, and a back line that has conceded in every single group game. Hakimi and Saibari already know what to do with it.

Jordan is eliminated, and Argentina has already topped Group J, but the football left to play in Dallas carries more interest than most dead rubbers deserve. Two group games have shown Al Nashama carry a genuine transition weapon built around one of the most direct wide players at this tournament. Against a rotated Albiceleste defence facing that pace together for the first time, there are real grounds for expecting at least one dangerous moment from the underdogs before the final whistle.

Ancelotti’s answer to the problem of Vinicius Junior is structural, not motivational. Three group games into 2026, Vinicius already has four goals and an assist, compared to one goal across five appearances at Qatar 2022. The difference isn’t form or confidence or even opposition quality. It’s where Ancelotti tells him to stand, who he puts behind him to make that position sustainable, and what he stops asking him to do altogether. That structural decision changed first. The numbers followed directly after, and fast.

Haiti’s last World Cup goal was not scored against Italy. Emmanuel Sanon’s second strike of the 1974 tournament, against Argentina in the 63rd minute, is the moment 52 years of silence runs from. Dead rubber or not, June 24 in Atlanta is Haiti’s final chance to end it. Morocco will rotate their squad, and pace-based attackers like Wilson Isidor and Ruben Providence may find space that hasn’t existed in the previous two matches.

Morocco showed exactly how to unsettle Brazil on June 13, and Steve Clarke would be unwise to ignore the lesson. Scotland faced Brazil on June 24 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, needing a win to guarantee a place in the knockout rounds for the first time in their history. The tactical blueprint already exists. Morocco drew 1-1 in New Jersey and exposed structural vulnerabilities in Brazil’s midfield that Scotland can target.

DR Congo arrive at Estadio Akron on one point, knowing a draw against Colombia keeps them level with Portugal and alive in Group K. The tactical question nobody is asking loudly enough: what does Chancel Mbemba, one yellow card from a suspension that costs him the Uzbekistan finale, actually do when Luis Diaz runs in behind at pace? The defensive shape that frustrated Portugal for 90 minutes depends almost entirely on how DR Congo manages that answer on Tuesday.