Opinions, analysis and commentary
Croatia can only fix their back line by surviving the opening minutes, marking set pieces tightly and staying compact, because it has already been broken twice. They have conceded 12 goals in three games, including a 7-0 defeat by England on 3 October, their heaviest defeat ever. Three days later they host Spain at Stadion Poljud in Split, kicking off at 19:45 BST. Spain have already beaten them 4-1. The question is whether a unit that has broken twice can be mended by Tuesday.
Croatia trailed 4-0 at half-time in Rijeka. Josko Gvardiol’s error let Jude Bellingham release Harry Kane after eight minutes, and Bukayo Saka was left unmarked at six yards just before the break. A stray Josip Stanišić pass later led to Saka’s second. Those were individual errors, not tactical ones, and they were costly.
| Match | Opponent | Goals Conceded | Expected Goals Against | Shots Faced |
| Matchday 1 (26 Sep) | Czechia | 1 | Not published | Not published |
| Matchday 2 (29 Sep) | Spain | 4 | 1.77 | 16 |
| Matchday 3 (3 Oct) | England | 7 | 6.14 | 19 |
England had 19 shots, 10 on target, against Croatia’s one on target, and their expected goals reached 6.14. No expected-goals figure was published for the Czechia game, and the figure against England dwarfs the 1.77 Spain created in the previous game. That gap explains why the result felt settled by the interval.
Spain’s 4-1 win in Seville on 29 September exposed a different weakness: early and set-piece lapses. Lamine Yamal scored after two minutes, Marc Pubill was unmarked from a corner around the half-hour, Yamal added a near-post goal in the 63rd minute, and Nico Williams finished late. Spain had 16 shots, 1.77 expected goals and 64% possession, yet Croatia made more tackles, 21 to 15. They matched Spain physically but not structurally.
Head coach Slaven Bilić, who took charge in July, offered no tactical explanation after the England game, saying there was nothing smart to say, and accepted responsibility. Reports expect wholesale changes, with a 4-3-3 and Dominik Livaković in goal projected, but no XI has been confirmed. The repairs look basic: survive the opening minutes, mark set pieces tightly and keep the back line compact. That wish list is realistic, but it demands concentration from the first whistle.
Also read: What Does England vs Czechia Mean for the UEFA Nations League Group Standings?
Yamal has four goals in three Nations League games and has scored in all of them. His first goals came after 1:44 against England, about 1:10 against Croatia and just after five minutes against Czechia. That pattern makes the first ten minutes the most dangerous period for the hosts.
He was taken off at half-time against Czechia but is expected to start, so Croatia’s opening spell may decide the match. A back line that conceded after 1:10 last time cannot afford a slow start.
Luka Modrić said it was the first time in 20 years he had felt ashamed after a match, and criticised the lack of duels, aggression and unity. Bilić said Croatia does not deserve the team they saw in Rijeka and stressed the need for unity and character against Spain. Both statements point to a problem of attitude as much as shape.
Modrić scored in the 2-1 win over Czechia, so his influence on the pitch is not in doubt. That win came on matchday one, when Croatia conceded only once. Whether that anger turns into duels won on Tuesday is the real test. Anger only helps if the back four turn it into focus and discipline.
Ferran Torres and Nico Williams have withdrawn injured, and one preview also lists Alex Grimaldo as absent. Yet Luis de la Fuente is expected to make about eight changes, with Pau Cubarsi, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella and Unai Simon returning. Those names suggest the visitors will not lack organisation at the back.
Squad depth limits what the hosts can exploit, and Croatia’s one shot on target against England shows how little they have created recently. For the Croatia defence against Spain in the UEFA Nations League tie, the first ten minutes, where Yamal has scored in every game, matter most, because that is where Croatia have been most exposed twice already.
Can Bilić’s side survive the first ten minutes against Yamal on Tuesday? Give us your scoreline prediction in the comments below.
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Why did Croatia lose 7-0 to England?
Gvardiol’s error led to an eighth-minute goal, and Croatia trailed 4-0 at half-time. England had 10 shots on target to Croatia’s one, and Modrić blamed a lack of duels and unity.
Who is the Croatia head coach in the UEFA Nations League 2026-27?
Slaven Bilić is the head coach. He took charge in July and accepted responsibility for the 7-0 defeat by England in Rijeka, the heaviest in Croatia’s history.
How many goals has Lamine Yamal scored in the Nations League this season?
Yamal has scored four goals in three games. He got one against England, two against Croatia and one against Czechia, scoring in every match he has played.
What time does Croatia vs Spain kick off?
Kick-off is 19:45 BST on Tuesday, 6 October, which is 20:45 local time. The match is at Stadion Poljud in Split, with Croatia hosting three days after the 7-0 loss in Rijeka.
What is Croatia’s head-to-head record against Spain?
Spain lead with five wins to Croatia’s two, plus two draws. That covers nine meetings by 90-minute results, including the most recent, a 4-1 in Seville on 29 September.
