Opinions, analysis and commentary
Italy won in Bursa on 28 September by a 4-1 margin, punishing every Turkish mistake and scoring three times inside 27 minutes in a Group A1 match after losing their opener 2-0 to Belgium. Turkey can tidy up the defence in a few days, but not the personnel, because Arda Güler is suspended for the rematch in Bologna on 5 October. Unless coach Vincenzo Montella finds answers to loose balls and a depleted attack, the return game at the Dall’Ara looks like a repeat in waiting.
Roberto Mancini changed eight players after the Belgium defeat, yet Italy still produced 10 attempts before the break. Turkey replied shortly after the restart when Barış Alper Yılmaz finished an Oğuz Aydın cross, but Esposito soon restored the three-goal cushion. What stands out is that every Italian goal grew from a different Turkish error.
The table breaks the four goals down by cause. Two were rebounds, one followed a miscued clearance, and one came from a runner nobody tracked. Turkey supplied the chances, and Italy collected them.
| Minute | Italy Scorer | How It Happened | Turkey Error |
| 9th | Alessandro Bastoni | Ruggeri’s low corner ran through a crowded box | Zeki Çelik’s miscued clearance |
| 22nd | Davide Frattesi | Kayode’s shot from inside the box was spilled | Bayındır could not hold the shot |
| 27th | Michael Kayode | Esposito’s lay-off, finished low at the near post | Failed to track Kayode’s forward run |
| 50th | Pio Esposito | Header from the rebound after Tonali hit the post | Esposito reacted first to the loose ball |
The opener came on nine minutes. Matteo Ruggeri sent a low corner through a crowded penalty area, Çelik’s clearance went wrong, and Bastoni was on hand to finish. Altay Bayındır then fumbled a Kayode shot on 22 minutes, and Davide Frattesi tucked away the rebound.
Both goals began with loose balls that the Turkish defence ought to have cleared, which is how the Italians built an early lead without needing to open Turkey up. Bastoni sat out the Belgium match on suspension, and his two group appearances have both brought goals, including an equaliser in the 68th minute against the French.
Also read: Why Does France Keep Beating Belgium, and Can Belgium Finally Break the Run in the Nations League?
Kayode, a full-back playing his debut, pushed forward to make it 3-0 in 27 minutes after another sharp Italian combination. Throughout the spell, Italy’s passing dragged Turkey out of shape. Officially lined up as a 4-2-3-1, the hosts sank into a flatter formation whenever Italy had possession.
Montella did not hide from it. He admitted the opening was poor, that his players looked unlike themselves, and that the jeering from the stands was fair. He also pointed to two players forced out of position and a schedule that asks for a game every three days, adding that the side responded after the break.
Arda Güler, who featured in Bursa, misses the return after picking up a late booking against Belgium, while Yılmaz, the second-half scorer, is serving a ban for accumulated cards. Injuries also rule out Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Previews expect Deniz Gül, Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Yunus Akgün to lead the line.
The numbers are grim. All three of Turkey’s Group A1 games have ended in defeat, with one goal scored and eight conceded. Montella argues the play is better than that, saying his players reached the Belgian penalty area 40 times against 26 and lacked only a finish, but a thinner attack makes that claim harder to cash in.
In Group A1, Italy occupy third place on four points, built from a win, a draw and a defeat, with five goals for and four against, following the 1-1 draw with France on Friday. Their record at the Dall’Ara reads 16 wins, five draws and three defeats from 24 internationals, although their one home group game ended in a 2-0 loss to Belgium. Three of the last five meetings with Turkey went Italy’s way.
Rotation is likely, and Gianluca Scamacca and Nicolò Barella are expected to start. Still, anyone reading Italy vs Turkey Nations League first leg analysis can see why the hosts are favourites: early pressure from Italy meets a Turkish attack with little depth left.
Can Turkey survive the opening half hour in Bologna without Güler and Yılmaz, or will Italy run riot again? Drop your score prediction in the comments.
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What was the final score when Italy played Turkey in Bursa?
The Italians won 4-1 at Bursa on 28 September. The scorers were Bastoni, Frattesi, Kayode and Esposito, with Barış Alper Yılmaz replying for Turkey after the break.
Why did Turkey collapse so badly in Bursa?
Italian passing exposed repeated Turkish errors in the opening half hour. Vincenzo Montella conceded that his team began poorly, and Italy scored three times inside the first 27 minutes.
Where will Italy host Turkey in the Nations League return game?
Bologna’s Stadio Renato Dall’Ara hosts the return game. The match starts at 8:45 pm local time, which is 18:45 GMT, or 12:45 am the next morning in Bangladesh.
Will Arda Güler play in the rematch with Italy?
No, Güler is suspended for the rematch. A late booking against Belgium in a 3-0 defeat triggered the ban, and Barış Alper Yılmaz is also out through accumulated cards.
What is the Group A1 table before Italy host Turkey?
France lead on seven points, with Belgium on six, Italy on four, and Turkey pointless. Italy have scored five and conceded four, while Turkey have managed one goal and shipped eight.
