Opinions, analysis and commentary
Japan’s only win over Brazil in 14 attempts came at 2-0 down, in Tokyo, with 38 minutes remaining. It happened through a pressing trigger, a quick combination, and three finishes that rewrote the history books entirely. Houston on June 29 is not Tokyo, and Ancelotti’s Brazil is not a side that collapses without a very specific reason. But Japan’s blueprint hasn’t changed since that night, Moriyasu has made no attempt to hide it, and the players who executed it in October are still in this squad.
Japan trailed 2-0 at half-time of the Kirin Challenge Cup in October 2025, with Paulo Henrique scoring in the 26th minute and Gabriel Martinelli adding another in the 32nd. Moriyasu pushed his line higher at the break, and Japan pressed from the front.
The breakthrough came in the 52nd minute. A high press from Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Ayase Ueda, and Takumi Minamino forced a turnover deep in Brazilian territory; Minamino finished. Doan then slid a ball behind Brazil’s defence, and Junya Ito’s cross was turned in by Keito Nakamura in the 57th minute. Ueda’s header completed it in the 71st. Japan’s first win over Brazil, from 2-0 down.
| Match | Japan | Brazil | Result |
| Friendly, Oct 2014 | 0 | 4 | Brazil won |
| Friendly, Nov 2017 | 1 | 3 | Brazil won |
| Friendly, Jun 2022 | 0 | 1 | Brazil won |
| Kirin Cup, Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 2 | Japan won 3-2 |
Kamada started that October night in a holding midfield position alongside Kaishu Sano. He didn’t score or assist, but his pressing work was central to the turnover that began the comeback.
At this World Cup, he’s operating further forward, taking up an advanced midfield pocket behind Ueda. He’s scored twice in the group stage: a deflected header against the Netherlands in the 88th minute and an early close-range finish against Tunisia inside four minutes. He’s arriving in the spaces that the pressing engine creates. That matters here because Brazil’s full-backs push forward in attack, and the space they leave on the turn is the zone Kamada has been finding all tournament.
Japan’s counter-threat runs through Ito, Doan and Nakamura, the same players who capitalised on pressing triggers in October. Brazil’s left-back options are Douglas Santos and Alex Sandro, with Douglas Santos having started the role in Brazil’s most recent pre-tournament friendly.
The blueprint isn’t about targeting one full-back. It’s about the conditions that make full-backs vulnerable: Japan winning possession high, quick combinations into wide channels, and runners arriving before Brazil can reorganise. Those conditions existed for 30 minutes in Tokyo and produced three goals.
What Brazil has gained is organisation under Ancelotti. What Japan is banking on is whether their press can recreate those same conditions in Houston.
Wataru Endo didn’t make it to this tournament. He withdrew through injury, retired from international football, and Ko Itakura took over the captaincy. Shuto Machino was added to the squad in his place.
The defensive midfield screening has been split between Ao Tanaka and Kaishu Sano through the group stage. Japan’s identity hasn’t changed under Moriyasu, but with Sano needed in a double pivot, Kamada’s advanced role raises a question about exposure during Brazil’s transitions. Brazil scored six goals in two group wins, with Vinicius Junior accounting for four of them. Japan’s shape needs to hold between press attempts, not only during them.
Brazil arrive as clear favourites, with one pre-match projection calling a 3-1 win. The group stage numbers back that confidence: seven points, six goals, Vinicius Junior among the tournament’s top scorers.
Japan finished unbeaten on five points but hasn’t faced a side of this quality in a winner-take-all fixture. Ancelotti acknowledged his side mentally collapsed once before and has worked all tournament to ensure it doesn’t happen again.
Japan has a specific mechanism: not a general high press, but the combination of Doan, Ito, Nakamura, and Kamada from known positions against a high defensive line. Whether Moriyasu can get them into that shape for long enough is what makes this Japan vs Brazil FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 upset blueprint worth taking seriously.
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Has Japan ever beaten Brazil before this World Cup?
Yes, but only once in 14 meetings. Japan’s 3-2 comeback win in the October 2025 Kirin Challenge Cup in Tokyo was their first-ever victory over Brazil, ending a run of Brazilian dominance stretching back to 1989.
When did Japan beat Brazil for the first time?
Japan beat Brazil for the first time on October 14, 2025. They won 3-2 in Tokyo after trailing 2-0 at half-time, with Minamino, Nakamura, and Ueda all scoring in the second half to complete the comeback.
Who scored Japan’s three goals in the 2025 win over Brazil?
Takumi Minamino, Keito Nakamura, and Ayase Ueda scored for Japan. Minamino struck in the 52nd minute, Nakamura converted Ito’s cross in the 57th, and Ueda’s header completed the 3-2 win in the 71st minute.
Who is Japan’s captain at the 2026 World Cup?
Ko Itakura captains Japan at this tournament after Wataru Endo’s withdrawal. Endo pulled out through injury before the World Cup began and retired from international football, with Shuto Machino added to the squad as his replacement.
How many goals has Vinicius Junior scored at the 2026 World Cup?
Vinicius Junior has scored four goals in three group stage matches. Brazil accumulated seven points in Group C, winning 3-0 against both Haiti and Scotland after a 1-1 draw with Morocco.
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