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Julio Enciso is the answer, and he might be the only one Paraguay have. France arrive in Philadelphia unbeaten, averaging almost nine shots on target a game, and have not stopped scoring since the group stage began. Paraguay have produced one genuine route to goal all tournament, and it belongs to their 22-year-old forward. He created both group-stage goals, then headed in the equaliser that eventually beat Germany on penalties. Everything Paraguay create going forward starts and ends with him, and Saturday’s outcome now hinges on his fitness.
France walk in as the shortest favourites left in the competition, priced at minus 500 on the regulation moneyline and as short as minus 2000 to advance. Didier Deschamps’ side have won all four matches, scored 13 goals and posted an expected goals figure above 1.50 in every one.
The gap shows everywhere. France entered ranked third by FIFA and beat Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, Norway 4-1 and Sweden 3-0, averaging 8.5 shots on target a game. The Sweden win alone produced 25 shots and 3.17 expected goals.
Kylian Mbappe has six goals in four matches and is now France’s all-time leading World Cup scorer, while Michael Olise has added five assists. Paraguay, ranked 41st, opened with a 4-1 defeat to the United States and are averaging just 0.36 expected goals a match. The 38-place gap makes this the widest mismatch left in the draw.
He assisted Paraguay’s opener in a 4-1 group-stage loss to the United States, then set up Matias Galarza’s second-minute strike in a 1-0 win over Turkiye. A goalless draw with Australia followed before his biggest moment yet, heading home Galarza’s cross in the 42nd minute against Germany, converting a chance worth just 0.08 expected goals.
He was rated the best player on the pitch at halftime in Boston that day. The caveat is fitness: he limped off in the 57th minute with a lower-body issue and is listed as probable for Saturday. Without him at full sharpness, Paraguay’s attacking output all but disappears.
| Match | Result | Paraguay’s Goal | Enciso’s Contribution |
| USA (Group D) | 1-4 loss | One goal | Assist |
| Turkiye (Group D) | 1-0 win | Galarza, 2nd min | Assist |
| Australia (Group D) | 0-0 draw | None | No goal involvement |
| Germany (Round of 32) | 1-1, won 4-3 on pens | Enciso, 42nd min | Goal (0.08 xG header) |
Orlando Gill made five saves against Germany, who controlled 73 percent of second-half possession and registered 33 touches inside the Paraguay box. Jose Canale then buried the winning kick in a 4-3 shootout that sent a tournament favourite home.
Even so, Paraguay restricted Germany to 1.57 expected goals across 120 minutes, and France already averages more than that per 90 in open play. A goalkeeper facing 8.5 shots on target a game will eventually be beaten, so survival alone was never a plan. Paraguay need a goal of their own to make it matter.
France have conceded only twice in four matches, and Sweden managed just 0.66 expected goals against them. But the cracks that exist follow a pattern. Nicolas Jackson struck the post early for Senegal, and both goals France have shipped so far arrived from wide areas.
That is precisely the channel Paraguay’s goal against Germany came from: a corner kept alive, a Galarza delivery, and a forward attacking above the defensive line. Set-piece chaos and crosses remain the one repeatable route into a defence that otherwise looks watertight.
Saturday is only the third World Cup meeting between these two nations. France won the first 7-3 in 1958, with Just Fontaine scoring a hat-trick during the tournament in which he set the still-standing record of 13 goals.
The second came at the 1998 round of 16, when Paraguay held the eventual champions for 113 minutes before Laurent Blanc’s golden goal settled it 1-0. Paraguay have never beaten France at a World Cup, but that night remains the blueprint: frustrate, survive, and stay one moment away.
That is the Paraguay World Cup 2026 Julio Enciso equation in one sentence: history says frustrate, survive, and stay one moment away, and this time Paraguay finally have a finisher capable of taking it.
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When do Paraguay play France at the World Cup 2026?
Saturday, July 4, 2026, at 5 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The tie falls on Independence Day weekend, with France entering as the shortest favourites left in the draw.
How did Paraguay beat Germany in the round of 32?
They won 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw through extra time. Julio Enciso’s 42nd-minute header was cancelled out by Kai Havertz, and the shootout marked Germany’s first-ever World Cup penalty defeat.
Has Paraguay ever beaten France at a World Cup?
No, Paraguay have never beaten France in a World Cup match. France won 7-3 in 1958 and 1-0 in 1998, the latter settled by Laurent Blanc’s golden goal in the round of 16.
Who is Paraguay’s top scorer at the 2026 World Cup?
Julio Enciso leads the squad with one goal and two assists. No other Paraguayan has scored more than once, and Enciso has a hand in all three of the team’s goals so far.
What are the betting odds for the France vs Paraguay match?
France are priced at minus 500 in regulation, with Paraguay at plus 1400 and the draw at plus 600. To advance, France sit at minus 2000 while Paraguay are priced at plus 850.
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