Brighton are the realistic answer. After six matches, they sit third on 13 points with a goal difference of +13, ahead of Brentford, Everton and Leeds, and their schedule to 19 December contains only two meetings with a Big Six side. Fourth place has needed between 65 and 71 points across the last five seasons, a bar that looks reachable for them, though nothing is guaranteed for any club chasing from outside the established elite. That mix of results and fixtures makes them the safest bet.

Brighton Lead the Chasing Pack

Brighton have pulled clear of the clubs outside the established elite. Thirteen points from six matches put them third, and their 18 goals scored against only 5 conceded give them the best goal difference in the division. Their last five outings read loss, draw, win, win, win, which suggests a side finding its stride rather than riding one hot week.

Brentford sit fourth on 10 points with a +6 difference, having scored 12 and let in 6. Everton are level on points and have an 8-5 goals record, while Leeds have nine points and the same 8-5 ratio but a patchier run of draws.

Premier League 2026-27 top four contenders

The top of the table is already settled into a pattern. Manchester City lead on 18 points, and Arsenal follow on 15, which leaves only two places up for grabs among everyone else. Chelsea are sixth, Liverpool ninth on 9 points, Manchester United 13th with 6, and Tottenham 19th with 3 and a goal difference of minus 6.

That stumbling from the traditional heavyweights is what builds the outsiders’ case. A club from beyond the established group only needs to stay consistent while Liverpool, United and Tottenham sort themselves out, and Chelsea lead Leeds by a single point.

Fixture Lists Separate the Hopefuls

Brighton have the friendliest road, with just two Big Six tests before 19 December and both of them away, at Liverpool on 24 October and at Manchester City on 31 October. Brentford face four, starting at home to Liverpool on 17 October, then a trip to Manchester United on 28 November before hosting Arsenal on 2 December and City on 5 December. That run is front- and back loaded, testing their depth.

Everton meet three of the elite: Chelsea at home on 17 October, Arsenal away a week later, and Liverpool at home on 29 November. Leeds have the heaviest load of five, beginning with United at home on 18 October and Tottenham on 7 November, before trips to Chelsea, City and Liverpool on 21 November, 2 December and 12 December. A club that survives that stretch with points would deserve real respect.

Points Targets From Recent Seasons

The finishing line has moved around. Tottenham reached 71 points in 2021-22, and Newcastle matched it a year later; Aston Villa took fourth with 68 in 2023-24, and Chelsea managed 69 in 2024-25. Villa then needed only 65 in 2025-26, the lowest mark of the five years.

Brighton’s current rate of 13 points from six games would project beyond 80 over a full season, while Brentford and Everton at 10 are on pace for just over 63. That gap matters because 65 is the lowest bar anyone has needed lately.

Verdict on the Outsiders

Brighton deserve to be first choice, backed by the best goal difference, a kind early schedule and a form line that points upward. Brentford come next, since their goals record is solid and their recent results show resilience even without much attacking flair. Everton and Leeds look more like dark horses who need favours.

Of the Premier League 2026-27 top four contenders from outside the Big Six, Brighton hold the clearest edge today. The season is long, and one injury crisis could change the picture, but the numbers, the fixtures and the form all point in the same direction. Until another club proves otherwise, they are the side to beat.

Is Brighton’s early form built to last until May, or will the fixture list expose them? Share your pick in the comments.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Which team from beyond the elite six is closest to fourth?

Brighton are closest, sitting third with 13 points. Their goal difference of +13 is the best in the division, built on 18 goals scored and only 5 conceded in six matches.

How many points did fourth place need last season?

Aston Villa finished fourth in 2025-26 with 65 points. That was the lowest total of the last five seasons, which peaked at 71 for both Tottenham and Newcastle in consecutive campaigns.

Who are the Big Six clubs in the Premier League?

The Big Six are Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham. Only City and Arsenal sit in the top two at present, while Tottenham are 19th with three points.

Which Premier League club has the best goal difference?

Brighton have the best goal difference at +13. Manchester City follow on +11 after six games, while Brentford sit on +6 and are the next closest challenger from outside the elite.

How many Big Six teams does Leeds face before 19 December?

Leeds face five Big Six sides by 19 December. Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool all appear on their schedule, the heaviest load among the four contenders.