Opinions, analysis and commentary
Croatia’s history of grinding out results against bigger squads is why Thursday’s Round of 32 tie at BMO Field isn’t the mismatch the depth chart suggests. Both sides finished second in their groups: Portugal behind Colombia, Croatia behind England. Portugal’s own group stage already showed how uncomfortable they get against patient, disciplined defending, and that pattern hasn’t gone away since. The real question is which Croatia shows up on Thursday, the one that suffocated Brazil in 2022, or the one that shipped four goals to England three weeks ago.
Portugal’s evidence against organised defending is sitting right there in their group results. DR Congo drew them 1-1, taking an early Joao Neves goal before Sebastien Desabre’s side dropped into a mid-to-low block, cut off central service to Ronaldo, and equalised through Yoane Wissa.
Portugal finished with just 0.65 expected goals despite dominating the ball. Colombia did something different in the final group match, controlling large spells themselves and outshooting Portugal 24 to a handful in a goalless draw where Ronaldo barely got a sniff, his one shot on target a long-range free kick straight at the keeper.
| Team | Tactics vs Portugal | Portugal Possession | Portugal xG | Goals Scored vs Portugal |
| DR Congo | Mid-to-low block, denied central service | ~65% | 0.65 | 1 (Wissa equaliser) |
| Colombia | Compact structure, controlled tempo themselves | 55% | 0.93 | 0 |
| Croatia (2022 QF, for context) | Low block, patient press, penalties win | n/a vs Brazil | n/a | 1 (Petkovic, in extra time) |
Two different approaches, same outcome. Portugal have not scored from open play against a well-organised opponent since their group opener.
Dalic’s setup isn’t a new idea reached for out of desperation. It’s the shape that took his side to the 2018 final and a penalty win over Brazil in the 2022 quarter-final, built on a compact midfield screen and pressing triggers that wait rather than chase. Luka Modric, now 40 and fresh off his 200th international appearance, remains the man Dalic trusts to control tempo the moment possession changes hands.
Croatia’s issue this tournament is that the system slipped badly in the opener, conceding four to an England side that exploited the same pace in behind that Portugal also carries through Rafael Leao and Pedro Neto. Since then, Dalic’s team has looked closer to its old identity, winning 1-0 over Panama and 2-1 over Ghana.
Also read:- Why Konrad Laimer’s Pressing Role Could Be Austria’s Best Chance of Disrupting Spain at the World Cup 2026
The England result matters because it shows the low block isn’t automatic. It has to be built match by match, and Croatia’s opener suggested rust rather than a broken plan. England’s directness and pace punished gaps that weren’t there in 2022 or 2018.
What followed against Panama and Ghana looked like a team re-learning its habits. The pressing triggers returned, the midfield screen tightened, and Modric started dictating rhythm again rather than chasing it. That contrast, chaotic against England and controlled against Panama and Ghana, is why Thursday is so hard to call. Portugal will test whether the rediscovered version is the real one.
No defensive structure fully accounts for Ronaldo. Both of his goals this tournament came in the 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan, and even in quiet games he needs one clean sight of goal to punish a team that has otherwise done everything right.
Croatia know this better than most. Neymar’s extra-time strike nearly won the 2022 quarter-final for Brazil before Bruno Petkovic’s equaliser dragged the tie to penalties. One moment of quality can undo ninety minutes of defending.
None of this makes Croatia favourites. Portugal carry more individual quality, an unbeaten run stretching back eight matches, and a defensive record this tournament that has already shown it can be broken by pace and directness.
But the pattern holds. Organised, patient defending is the one thing that has consistently blunted this Portugal side, and Croatia are among the few teams left in the bracket who have actually won a World Cup knockout match playing exactly that way. If Dalic’s side rediscovers the shape that beat Panama and Ghana rather than the one that shipped four to England, Croatia World Cup 2026 low block tactics could once again decide a knockout tie, with Modric dictating when the game speeds up and when it doesn’t.
Do you think Croatia’s low block can frustrate Ronaldo for ninety minutes? Drop your prediction in the comments.
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Can Croatia beat Portugal at the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32?
Yes, Croatia have the pedigree to do it, even as underdogs. They beat a stronger Brazil side on penalties in 2022 using the same low-block setup Dalic still relies on today.
How did DR Congo hold Portugal to a draw in the group stage?
DR Congo equalised through Yoane Wissa after dropping into a mid-to-low block that cut off central service to Ronaldo. Portugal finished with just 0.65 expected goals despite dominating possession.
What is Croatia’s tactical system under Zlatko Dalic?
Dalic builds his side around a compact midfield screen and patient pressing triggers rather than a high press. Luka Modric, now capped 200 times, is trusted to control tempo the moment his team regains the ball.
How many goals has Cristiano Ronaldo scored at the 2026 World Cup?
Ronaldo has scored twice so far, both goals coming in the 5-0 win over Uzbekistan. The brace made him the first player in history to score across six different World Cups.
Why has Portugal struggled to score against organised defences this tournament?
Portugal have not scored from open play against a well-drilled opponent since their group opener. Both DR Congo and Colombia set up in disciplined defensive shapes and largely nullified service into Ronaldo.
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