Opinions, analysis and commentary
Desire Doué is the only realistic threat left, and the reason is simple: he plays France’s semifinal against Yamal’s Spain on July 14, with the world watching both of them at once. Pau Cubarsi has a genuine defensive case, but no pure centre-back has ever won this award. Nico O’Reilly is mathematically alive only if England beat Norway and he suddenly starts scoring. The gap to Yamal is real, but it isn’t unbridgeable in one match. History says late surges happen more than favourites like to admit.
Lamine Yamal arrives at his first World Cup as the pre-tournament favourite, and the underlying campaign has been quietly functional rather than dazzling. The 18-year-old Barcelona winger has one goal, scored against Saudi Arabia in the group stage, and zero assists from six appearances spanning 405 minutes. That is modest next to his Euro 2024 return of one goal and four assists across seven games.
He created multiple big chances from a 19-minute cameo against Cape Verde alone, and his average match rating sits at 7.3 across six appearances, with Spain into the semifinals for the first time since their 2010 title. The panel will weigh his pedigree too: two Kopa Trophies, the 2024 Golden Boy, and the Euro 2024 Young Player honour.
| Player | Team | Goals | Assists |
| Lamine Yamal | Spain | 1 | 0 |
| Pau Cubarsi | Spain | 0 | 0 |
| Desire Doue | France | 1 | 1 |
| Nico O’Reilly | England | 0 | 0 |
The award race compresses into a single fixture on July 14, when France meet Spain in Dallas. Doue starts from a different position than the scoreboard suggests. France have scored 16 goals in six matches, the most of any side left, and Doue is an active part of that output. His assist against Morocco on July 9 carried an 8.4 rating, the highest single-game mark of any eligible young player this tournament.
A goal or an assist in the semifinal would put him level with the frontrunner on direct contributions. Cubarsi’s case is different again, built entirely on defensive consistency across 540 minutes and five clean sheets rather than any single moment.
The calendar helps him. Facing Cubarsi and Yamal directly gives Doue a stage no other challenger gets. A brace in that fixture, or a goal plus an assist, would force a conversation among panelists that isn’t currently happening. France’s system gives him licence to arrive late, and attack isolated defenders, and against Spain’s five-clean-sheet record, a breakthrough would carry real symbolic weight.
O’Reilly’s route is harder. With zero goals, zero assists, and England needing to beat Norway just to reach the semifinal, he would need decisive moments not seen from a left-back in any recent semifinal to enter the conversation.
FIFA’s Technical Study Group, a panel of coaches and former players, decides the award before the final, and it does not use a fixed formula. Instead, it weighs goals, assists, and chances created alongside team contribution and performance under pressure. Eligibility requires players to be 21 or younger on January 1 of the tournament year, meaning all four contenders qualify.
One structural fact eliminates most of the field: the winner has never come from a team that exited before the semifinals in the award’s 20-year history. That alone is why this argument only has four names in it.
The shortlist history is instructive. In 2022, Enzo Fernandez was not the headline contender before the knockout rounds began, yet he emerged through the quarterfinals and semifinals to take the award over pre-tournament favourites. Kylian Mbappe, the 2018 winner, scored four goals but none of them came before the round of 16. Both patterns point the same direction: this award tends to get decided late, not in the group stage.
That precedent is exactly Doué’s argument. The counter is Cubarsi, whose defensive numbers are the most consistent of any young player left, though no pure centre-back has ever won since the award was formalised in 2006. For the World Cup 2026 Young Player Award Yamal race, the frontrunner’s lead is real but not yet safe, and Wednesday’s fixture in Dallas will settle more of it than any stat collected so far.
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Who is currently the favourite for the young player award this tournament?
Lamine Yamal of Spain is the strong favourite heading into the semifinal. He carries two Kopa Trophies and the 2024 Golden Boy into a tournament where Spain reached the last four.
What are Lamine Yamal’s stats through the World Cup 2026 semifinals?
One goal and zero assists across six appearances totalling 405 minutes. His average match rating is 7.3, and he missed the tournament opener against Cape Verde while managing a hamstring issue.
How does FIFA’s panel decide the young player award winner?
A Technical Study Group of coaches and former players makes the call. They weigh goals, assists, and chances created alongside team contribution and fair play, with no fixed scoring formula involved.
Which players remain eligible contenders for this award?
Yamal, Cubarsi, Doué, and O’Reilly all meet the age cutoff. Each was born on or after January 1, 2005, the eligibility threshold FIFA sets for players entering the tournament year.
Has a tournament favourite ever been overtaken late in this award’s history?
Yes, Enzo Fernandez overtook the favourites during Argentina’s 2022 run. He was not the headline name before the knockout stage, but strong quarterfinal and semifinal performances won him the award anyway.
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